World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a6d3b01d75b373a61afde725ca4d6200e372cc127c79f0d0e0559da273e686f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 47c | 813.93$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.93 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 595$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.21 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 567.64$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.45 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 383.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 9c | 381.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 353.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.63 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 349.93$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.85 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 12c | 332.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 282.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 53c | 220.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 213.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 210.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 26c | 205.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 198.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 191.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 186.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 43c | 185.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 184.6$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 177.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 171.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 157.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 18c | 150.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…8272backed No | 16c | 140.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 138.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 61c | 129.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 78c | 122$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 8c | 117.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 17c | 117.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 110.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 108.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 65c | 106.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 29c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 89.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 89.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…6616backed No | 55c | 85.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 85.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 78.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 69.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 69.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 42c | 63.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 73c | 62.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 55c | 58.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 58c | 57.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 39c | 54.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 39c | 50.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 50.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 49.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 48.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…77febacked No | 55c | 48.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 46.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes | 80c | 45.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 42.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 60c | 41.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 43c | 40.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 78c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 62c | 38.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 44c | 38.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 44c | 35.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 59c | 32.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 46c | 31.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…9ccbbacked No | 45c | 31.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 31.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 30.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 78c | 30.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 54c | 29.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 58c | 29.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 42c | 27.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 27.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 26.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 25.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 23.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 22.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 77c | 22.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.