Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7492ec119ec244ab4c62e5741bde2f39f1d53321c6e656c17cc4f96c0267d2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 971.95$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.93 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 39c | 810.81$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.37 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 32c | 706.88$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.18 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 66c | 535.53$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.77 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 269.02$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 65c | 263.03$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 245$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 224.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 80c | 216.85$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 197.47$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 192.1$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 64c | 156.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…2b65backed No | 55c | 143$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed Yes | 77c | 128.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 126.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 118.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 114.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 67c | 105.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 90.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 86.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 44c | 85.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 85.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 12c | 84.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 77.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 75.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 73.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 75c | 71.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 66.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 64.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 61.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 59.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 54.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 37c | 53.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 52.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 33c | 51.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 45.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 44.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 37.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 32.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 45c | 29.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 46c | 29.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 57c | 28.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 25.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed No | 70c | 25.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 24.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 23.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 72c | 22.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 67c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 79c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 67c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 56c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4056…c4f1backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.