Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae8809fbf144c5409eb3887f7acbf7ef48fce83feb8fad2bee88d6477d074fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,601$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 438$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 357$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 342.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 75c | 326$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 240.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 27c | 230.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 55c | 210.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 23c | 183.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 173$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 166.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 21c | 165.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 139.67$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…2b65backed No | 68c | 138.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 133.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked No | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 116.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 79c | 100.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 16c | 92.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 82.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 80.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 61.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…bb96backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 74c | 57.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 52.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 79c | 52.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 48.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 25c | 48.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 31c | 48.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 25c | 43.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 72c | 32.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 73c | 32.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 69c | 28.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 27.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 58c | 24.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 76c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…67abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 78c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.