Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x407f97d96bafeebf4c7b01079af9df4411cead1555a4877206c4619b2b89a758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 43c | 1,202$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 38c | 1,101$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 61c | 646$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.36 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…2b65backed No | 39c | 415.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 26c | 400.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 328.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 27c | 269.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 264.41$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 253.08$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 208$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 204.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 165.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 144$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 58c | 140.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 63c | 138.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 135.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 76c | 131.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 130.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 120.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 31c | 117.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 115.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 47c | 115$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 82.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 30c | 81.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 76.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 74.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 27c | 73.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 67.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 67.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 64.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 26c | 64.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 60.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 55.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 54.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 52.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 49.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 44.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 77c | 43.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 43.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 35.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 57c | 33.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 32.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 24.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 73c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 64c | 19.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 73c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x432b…9be6backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.