TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c1,608$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.821,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes2c922.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.196015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes38c891.72$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.5160236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes13c464.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.347240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No61c461.18$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4181558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes38c273.01$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.351,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c247$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c245.64$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes42c235.2$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.162,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes18c211.05$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.427748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No61c205.3$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.073,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9218945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c195.35$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.313,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6385049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c136.56$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.984,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes51c127$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.292,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes48c111.85$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No65c103.79$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.131,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No63c99.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9934831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No52c88.27$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.423,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes38c81.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8514833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No58c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes18c74.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.693,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes44c70.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.34,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes30c69.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7142555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed No62c67.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8124141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c62.85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.415,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No60c62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.541,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes28c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.461629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8554253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c53.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.74,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes39c46.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6851…ec54backed No70c46.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.834454.5%24 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes40c45.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2110244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed No55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.27342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.75969.5%41 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba6d…9128backed Yes49c39.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.418251.2%42 W · 40 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No69c38.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9859144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes47c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes52c37.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.571,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No62c35.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4845675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes38c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.498845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No59c32.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No61c30.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9818247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.46,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.425560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe13b…6747backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No59c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.781,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No63c28.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5449359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No66c27.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.351,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes37c27.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0929927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…1f74backed No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.181546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.173,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes43c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3815062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.641752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0657…2b79backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x002d…47a2backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42777.8%21 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb22a…1479backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43369.7%23 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…e434backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42483.3%20 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+34.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d4e…7c1abacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06f…90acbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd99c…8490backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42479.2%19 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8143…5f93backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed5…4ea8backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a68…1e7abacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6118…d31dbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00b5…1b11backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9882…1d24backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0407…bcfdbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9293…8f2ebacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick60cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.439768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44477.3%34 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc798…6254backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b67…3998backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x256c…693bbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+37.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20f2…a18ebacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e2…13e1backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbc…9feabacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13eb…a4e6backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x236e…fe7fbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d2f…b741backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick61cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819956.3%112 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.312758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No62c18.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2125258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No72c16.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5528035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No66c15.14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.