Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x115285cf0abbbbf55a7d790c8a132918e5a229ffc9ce12d7c6ebe124cbac7842
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 487.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 22c | 287$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 34c | 210.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 27c | 170.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 17c | 136.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 78c | 119.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 114$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 108.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 101.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 29c | 98.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 85.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 80.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 79.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 34c | 70.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 66.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 45c | 62.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 66c | 59.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 57.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 56.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 45.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 70c | 43.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 26c | 37.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 74c | 29.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 29.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 27.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 26.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 75c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 18.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 15.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.