Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be at least 152m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e951cba7a5420955ba540dc6cb3f52a8b97f630916cb49f6a93d4ffbc98c105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 63c | 2,738$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 56c | 1,383$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.12 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 32c | 1,376$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.48 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 2c | 1,364$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 67c | 891$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 50c | 764.67$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.79 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 12c | 574.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 70c | 556.31$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.73 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 537.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 23c | 499.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 375$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 275.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 17c | 263.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.38 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 57c | 231.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…c4afbacked Yes | 68c | 226.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 226.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 68c | 206.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 205.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked No | 32c | 200.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 197.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 150.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 18c | 148.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…c99bbacked Yes | 51c | 136.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 13c | 124.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 18c | 118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 32c | 115$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 18c | 113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 68c | 110.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 17c | 108.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 15c | 104.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…7f22backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +213.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked No | 72c | 86.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…2b4abacked No | 30c | 84.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…a6d1backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 79.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 32c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 48.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…07a3backed No | 37c | 42.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…d0efbacked Yes | 69c | 38.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 41c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be at least 152m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 120m and 128m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 128m and 136m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 136m and 144m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 144m and 152m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.