Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 136m and 144m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c718a3bc694d87be685c81cac668476444b964b2dfdd04b073f000b1d62f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9f2…5508backed Yes | 38c | 402$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 41c | 40.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 26.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…2444backed No | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 136m and 144m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be at least 152m?Yes won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 120m and 128m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 128m and 136m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 144m and 152m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.