Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.50 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fc58e303d910d871048b9971df9511f52d4d7da3f3459a9902d99f2e1b128b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 23c | 1,831$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.06 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 13c | 1,658$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.48 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 40c | 1,018$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 38c | 901.92$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 25c | 824.77$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 787.5$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.69 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 12c | 415.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 46c | 414$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked No | 66c | 397.56$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 33c | 271.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 248.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 233.49$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 178.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 80c | 172.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 172.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked Yes | 22c | 171.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…3a4bbacked Yes | 19c | 160.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 13c | 151.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 19c | 146.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 126.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 122.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 70c | 112$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f0…41cbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 98.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a7…d961backed Yes | 13c | 93.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 88.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…87dfbacked Yes | 44c | 83.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…0101backed Yes | 14c | 70.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…dd0dbacked Yes | 22c | 67.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 63.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 32c | 57.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 35c | 50.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…ba07backed No | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…8218backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 77c | 23.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…205dbacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…3ebcbacked No | 77c | 22.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…ed3ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.50 in January?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in January?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.75–4.00 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.