Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa64820aa9cf1a2ae74293b1c8960b89f6ab6ca9c1b09bdd6be3ef94a5afd89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 54c | 1,637$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.81 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 66c | 1,233$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 68c | 1,135$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.09 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 426.12$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 69c | 275.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 247.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0000…5390backed Yes | 49c | 200.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…87dfbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 182.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 53c | 167.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 143.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 28c | 99.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 90.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…cd78backed Yes | 53c | 87.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…2d2cbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 24c | 76.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 69.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 49c | 60.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…6826backed Yes | 70c | 57.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…205dbacked Yes | 47c | 53.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…a35cbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 51.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 23c | 46.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8472backed No | 32c | 31.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…6f61backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d10…4490backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0906…247cbacked Yes | 71c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…37f8backed Yes | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…be5dbacked Yes | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in January?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.50 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in January?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.75–4.00 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.