Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a51638e07c4f9d933cf555a8817c350eec21b2b060de20b9ff59fb5bb17f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 38c | 1,477$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.32 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 27c | 917.48$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 671.7$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.16 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 72c | 456.51$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 77c | 448.53$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…248cbacked No | 24c | 442.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 73c | 438.11$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 12c | 412.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…dab3backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…bcf4backed Yes | 78c | 281.42$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…000bbacked Yes | 39c | 247$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…f1bfbacked No | 61c | 200.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 199.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 71c | 198.77$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a2…cb73backed No | 59c | 190$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 59c | 179.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…6a57backed Yes | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed Yes | 42c | 119.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 58c | 99.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7887…437abacked Yes | 70c | 92.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0ee8backed No | 37c | 85.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 72c | 66.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de9…84b5backed No | 78c | 63.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 20c | 53.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 46.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…6985backed No | 59c | 37.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ba…17b0backed Yes | 53c | 30.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…c578backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…fd31backed Yes | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…76cabacked Yes | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…6597backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in October?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.75 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.25 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.75–4.00 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.