Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2003198a00af3d1b44ad8b72bef3ef7c3e5fedb61fbb7fa5d2cdefc42d8d0827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 15c | 4,069$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.96 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 8c | 3,941$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.11 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 5c | 2,722$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 45c | 2,541$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.5 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,068$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 72c | 1,332$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 855.14$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.16 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 46c | 649.02$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.22 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 63c | 597.45$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 380.77$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 47c | 340$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 78c | 314.58$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed Yes | 54c | 299.95$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 284.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 174.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 58c | 130.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed Yes | 41c | 122.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…5604backed No | 36c | 81.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 68.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 37c | 55.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 74c | 49.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 39c | 49.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6397…735ebacked No | 53c | 49.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…833dbacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 40c | 42.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…5cc3backed No | 53c | 39.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…30e3backed Yes | 51c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 38c | 37.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…5c0cbacked Yes | 49c | 37.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…94f6backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 33.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 48c | 27.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…fd31backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 63c | 19.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…370ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in October?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.75 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost >$4.25 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in October?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in October?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.75–4.00 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.