Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a03ee47840f597a3e8ca93aa3e4420c69825da46b5165cccbdade3586c9f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 46c | 801.83$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed No | 28c | 704.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 26c | 388.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 69c | 309.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 34c | 265.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 33c | 246.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 80c | 197$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…3912backed No | 9c | 181$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0ed8backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 17cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 14c | 147$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 13c | 143.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked No | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 126.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 25c | 90.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 74.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 27c | 60.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…278ebacked No | 66c | 52.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 49.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 64c | 41.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 39c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cf…60f7backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…9ddabacked Yes | 78c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 16.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2380 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.