Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244ec8105ed79dccaf637bee550270db6add58c39a4f6add51503d6db12e57b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 11c | 2,313$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0ed8backed Yes | 9c | 1,108$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 17cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 893.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 23c | 799.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 439.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 8c | 378$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…1a74backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 13c | 230.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 229$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe861…461ebacked Yes | 14c | 213.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 16c | 207.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…5902backed Yes | 10c | 197.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 18c | 97.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 92.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 77c | 58.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 75c | 37.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2380 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.