Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfceaac397450cc2db1a349316f6102701d888ab0212a8b0d6062e70d79fdb71a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 4c | 6,035$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 2,205$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 10c | 800$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 11c | 606.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 576.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 402.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 6c | 346.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed No | 15c | 290.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 290.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 255.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.48 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…6f61backed No | 13c | 226.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 80c | 220$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…4d34backed No | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 6c | 179.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 10c | 176.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 147.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 139.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Yes | 56c | 94.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked Yes | 27c | 75.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…0de0backed No | 64c | 71.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…3018backed No | 66c | 70.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…42e9backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…278ebacked Yes | 65c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 68c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…1c3ebacked No | 67c | 16.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 2380 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.