Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe224f82cd81c2df858b62fe8b765a8cbf6738a2f6b60d9a60715a23e092f9e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 28c | 408.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 52c | 400.12$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 33c | 354.08$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 280.51$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 67c | 210.13$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 53c | 204.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 197.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 35c | 194.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 191.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 191.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 183.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 70c | 172.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 28c | 159.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…607cbacked Yes | 35c | 147.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes | 69c | 145.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 134.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 125.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes | 35c | 124.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 111.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 19c | 110.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 66c | 103.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 49c | 101.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes | 38c | 97.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 35c | 97.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 84.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 34c | 82.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 82.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 28c | 81.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 37c | 78.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 74.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 74.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 71.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 34c | 68.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 37c | 68.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 68.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 66.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 66.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 64c | 65.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 63.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 61.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 56.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 55.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 23c | 54.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 52c | 53.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 52.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 51c | 51.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 69c | 50.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 45.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…cdabbacked Yes | 38c | 43.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 40c | 42.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 41.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 39.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 65c | 34.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 35c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 70c | 30.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 34c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 55c | 28.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 66c | 26.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 75c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked No | 66c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…0356backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 69c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 65c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.