Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b02c30f7e699f9f95704c4e95a3015be463b5c1c569b3557ae64ad1beb9e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 0c | 10,010$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 25c | 1,665$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.49 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 13c | 1,177$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.48 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,077$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.46 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 1,040$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 19c | 751.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.91 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 673.65$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 27c | 591.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.87 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 16c | 482.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.72 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 422.73$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 62c | 400$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.35 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 15c | 371.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.6 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 341.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 30c | 301.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.76 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 31c | 282.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 66c | 270.89$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 263.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.94 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 41c | 258.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.38 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 253.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 34c | 252.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 16c | 202.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 20c | 202.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 194.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 29c | 182.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 34c | 176.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 167.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 164.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 159.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 68c | 156.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 67c | 150.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.34 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 67c | 149.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 149.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 17c | 140.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 20c | 139.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 36c | 135.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 62c | 132.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 113.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 13c | 111.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…3704backed Yes | 36c | 110.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…5078backed No | 78c | 94.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed No | 62c | 81.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 78.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 76.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 22c | 73.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 18c | 71.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 57c | 69.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 64c | 69.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 39c | 67.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 38c | 67.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 22c | 63.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1354…26e5backed No | 58c | 62.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 42c | 60.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 20c | 59.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 58.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 55.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 46c | 54.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 57c | 53.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 52.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 52.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 52.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 62c | 51.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 59c | 49.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 48.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 45.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 41.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 41.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 60c | 41.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 40.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 58c | 38.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 42c | 36.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 35.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 55c | 35.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 33.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.