Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b1b46a56b1c6279bb2881d2b567e72cee325559565ff41b068be5f86e739b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,475$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 419.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 358.66$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 355.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 326.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 304.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed No | 75c | 257.46$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 221.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 218.96$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 201.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 196.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 169.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 20c | 159.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 21c | 149.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…607cbacked Yes | 35c | 148.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes | 34c | 148.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 80c | 140.63$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes | 28c | 136.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 135.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 132.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 13c | 130.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 77c | 128$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 20c | 125.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 105.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 78c | 105.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 103.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 98.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 92.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 22c | 90.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 29c | 87.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 68c | 86.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 79c | 85.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 82.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 34c | 77.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 71c | 72.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 69.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 71c | 61.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 59.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 57.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 52.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 52.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 70c | 46.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 78c | 46.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 68c | 45.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 29c | 43.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 41.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 49c | 36.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 32c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 69c | 28.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 75c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 80c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 24.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked No | 80c | 24.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed No | 78c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 76c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 79c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…1884backed No | 74c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 80c | 14.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 75c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.