TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FlyQuestof FlyQuest, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$365,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$387,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels50c25,000$12,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,402.5291854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Sentinels49c20,549$10,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,161.0727637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked FlyQuest50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00057246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked FlyQuest44c18,963$8,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,697.949750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked FlyQuest49c18,800$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,679.4967250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Sentinels4c18,363$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.6289347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked FlyQuest49c17,069$8,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,745.751,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked FlyQuest49c14,051$6,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,145.8867760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Sentinels58c11,888$6,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,924.731,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sentinels32c10,017$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,173.531,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Sentinels54c9,122$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,963.271,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Sentinels53c6,000$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,209.991,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed FlyQuest59c5,852$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.745959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Sentinels51c5,526$2,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.8859554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed FlyQuest42c4,890$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.931,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked FlyQuest71c4,790$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.181,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed FlyQuest73c4,701$3,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.8257957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f8d…24dfbacked FlyQuest79c4,660$3,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.66958%40 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FlyQuest53c4,295$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.891,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Sentinels54c4,039$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.689943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Sentinels53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.971,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Sentinels52c3,888$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.321,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Sentinels27c3,773$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.851,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FlyQuest61c3,298$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.981,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sentinels28c3,263$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.641,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Sentinels58c3,000$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.51,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked FlyQuest56c2,814$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.1112646.8%59 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Sentinels55c2,544$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.8618953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…d698backed Sentinels50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9af9…eba7backed Sentinels54c2,250$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2151241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e2…25eabacked FlyQuest76c2,227$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.2111342.5%48 W · 65 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked FlyQuest50c2,108$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.6215457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed FlyQuest43c2,058$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.486251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0437…30f4backed Sentinels5c2,054$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.465246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…7752backed Sentinels7c2,009$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.113737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed FlyQuest76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.081,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Sentinels1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1b…722abacked Sentinels34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.992250%11 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed FlyQuest77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.993354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcae…2397backed Sentinels5c1,779$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.588051.3%41 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Sentinels27c1,753$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.251,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Sentinels56c1,524$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.2458850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…2290backed Sentinels44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FlyQuest45c1,407$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.722,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sentinels34c1,407$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.361,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Sentinels8c1,400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c39…36c6backed FlyQuest68c1,400$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.6612119.8%24 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked FlyQuest72c1,395$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.0226844%118 W · 150 L-37.1wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-26.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x677d…53f0backed FlyQuest79c1,384$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.241866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Sentinels4c1,374$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9766116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed FlyQuest53c1,370$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.996250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Sentinels16c1,320$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.247933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Sentinels52c1,306$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.021,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Sentinels1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51543.9%6 W · 148 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd459…4757backed Sentinels59c1,241$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.5657754.9%317 W · 260 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed FlyQuest50c1,210$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.2966458%385 W · 279 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FlyQuest79c1,203$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.43,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FlyQuest68c1,200$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.522,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FlyQuest50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60090537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed FlyQuest75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30012052.5%63 W · 57 L-12.6wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked FlyQuest41c1,200$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7081,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Sentinels33c1,188$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.1728638.1%109 W · 177 L-14.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Sentinels44c1,185$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.851,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Sentinels51c1,133$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.841,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95b…0d14backed FlyQuest51c1,124$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.115764.9%37 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Sentinels21c1,120$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5812557.6%72 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed FlyQuest65c1,118$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.3757349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51f…71d0backed FlyQuest72c1,111$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.7611844.1%52 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FlyQuest75c1,106$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.8476142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed FlyQuest55c1,040$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.633857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Sentinels55c1,014$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.5245937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Sentinels21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21063546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked Sentinels35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508339.8%33 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Sentinels26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Sentinels46c998.44$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.2295041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14d…45d1backed FlyQuest39c992.85$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.4313549.6%67 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ad…2267backed Sentinels44c976$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.4417150.9%87 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Sentinels14c944$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8745618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Sentinels2c928.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.571,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Sentinels58c901.57$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.4958559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed FlyQuest56c892$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.4955844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03d6…15b7backed FlyQuest78c880$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.059649%47 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed Sentinels58c832.18$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.8228350.2%142 W · 141 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed FlyQuest62c823$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.7413632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Sentinels48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3842,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d6…f1e2backed Sentinels43c800$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3449938.4%38 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Sentinels25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20071249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Sentinels5c799.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4033332.7%109 W · 224 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed FlyQuest57c790.71$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.1737957.5%218 W · 161 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FlyQuest74c758.69$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.041,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Sentinels28c757.14$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21033125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Sentinels49c750$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.537039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Sentinels51c750$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.517438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc733…4f14backed Sentinels54c740.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006453.1%34 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Sentinels44c705.68$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.560354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FlyQuest71c704.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.791,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97b…87dcbacked FlyQuest72c700$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5914654.8%80 W · 66 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Sentinels41c698.41$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.486943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FlyQuest69c680.96$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.531,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.