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Lol · resolved market

LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FlyQuestof FlyQuest, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$375,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$419,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Sentinels43c46,000$19,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,839.9992654%500 W · 426 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed FlyQuest59c41,754$24,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,236.7316356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Sentinels41c28,223$11,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,571.4320348.8%99 W · 104 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked FlyQuest59c27,704$16,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,358.6218961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FlyQuest57c22,867$13,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,814.551,10252.3%576 W · 526 L+5.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked FlyQuest57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.9814448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Sentinels42c18,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,56064455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed FlyQuest57c15,555$8,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.652245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Sentinels41c13,054$5,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,352.38558.8%50 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Sentinels41c11,895$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,876.9512944.2%57 W · 72 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Sentinels41c11,891$4,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,875.293531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Sentinels10c10,180$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.9728438%108 W · 176 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked FlyQuest58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.91,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bac…6fb7backed Sentinels45c9,662$4,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,301.5918633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Sentinels42c7,129$2,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,994.326246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…51f3backed FlyQuest58c6,742$3,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.7315357.5%88 W · 65 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Sentinels42c6,700$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,813.981,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FlyQuest62c6,590$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.4943642.4%185 W · 251 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed FlyQuest78c6,446$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.0358857.8%340 W · 248 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sentinels21c5,949$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.171,46038.4%560 W · 900 L-44.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa644…026ebacked FlyQuest57c5,750$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.812556%14 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed FlyQuest58c5,566$3,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.8321144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed FlyQuest58c5,041$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.6843539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Sentinels42c4,700$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97420454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked FlyQuest58c4,444$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.471,53554.9%843 W · 692 L+40.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked FlyQuest57c4,347$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.058934.8%31 W · 58 L-10.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Sentinels43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72064949.8%323 W · 326 L-26.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked FlyQuest55c3,890$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.9817647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e4…354ebacked Sentinels24c3,538$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.798242.7%35 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca5e…4a1cbacked Sentinels49c3,057$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50015552.3%81 W · 74 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e3…c540backed FlyQuest54c2,895$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.315146.4%70 W · 81 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked FlyQuest57c2,875$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked FlyQuest72c2,551$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.795552.7%29 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Sentinels44c2,550$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.241,15756.1%649 W · 508 L+27.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed FlyQuest57c2,500$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0751,34138.4%515 W · 826 L-70.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Sentinels42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9960054.3%326 W · 274 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked FlyQuest58c2,300$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9667030%21 W · 49 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked FlyQuest80c2,111$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.1412657.9%73 W · 53 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed FlyQuest66c2,089$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.3525265.5%165 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sentinels19c2,069$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.761,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Sentinels27c2,054$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.2730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Sentinels40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Sentinels1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Sentinels42c1,924$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.51,47528.9%427 W · 1,048 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb897…c669backed Sentinels17c1,909$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-77.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FlyQuest73c1,859$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.073,03244.4%1,347 W · 1,685 L-100.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed FlyQuest59c1,815$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.962,19153.5%1,173 W · 1,018 L+63.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed FlyQuest70c1,670$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.536952%192 W · 177 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sentinels30c1,663$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.411,98748.4%961 W · 1,026 L+26.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked FlyQuest57c1,600$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.9911344.2%50 W · 63 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Sentinels26c1,528$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1617133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Sentinels27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40544335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed FlyQuest57c1,491$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.1530351.5%156 W · 147 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked FlyQuest58c1,424$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.1737640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc99…e947backed FlyQuest57c1,309$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.226434.4%22 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked FlyQuest69c1,260$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.1213336.8%49 W · 84 L-13.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Sentinels45c1,253$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.031,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Sentinels15c1,240$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.451,64043.8%719 W · 921 L-75.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Sentinels42c1,220$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.1949947.1%235 W · 264 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sentinels16c1,191$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.492,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Sentinels26c1,173$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.511,21743.5%529 W · 688 L-15.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Sentinels50c1,151$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57076330.4%232 W · 531 L-19.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d56…9ad8backed FlyQuest57c1,150$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Sentinels13c1,139$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.272,57439.7%1,021 W · 1,553 L-81.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Sentinels20c1,095$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.3677142%324 W · 447 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Sentinels44c1,060$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.9113632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed FlyQuest54c1,002$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.651,10746.3%513 W · 594 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d1…b0dabacked Sentinels10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004812.5%6 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed FlyQuest58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42067159.8%401 W · 270 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Sentinels42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42035546.8%166 W · 189 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed FlyQuest57c999.99$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4301,80551.3%926 W · 879 L+54.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked FlyQuest55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.093732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…6e71backed Sentinels27c902.31$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8711521.7%25 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FlyQuest71c887.31$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.511,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked FlyQuest52c885.33$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42235341.9%148 W · 205 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Sentinels31c860.39$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26391537.5%343 W · 572 L-19.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…e495backed FlyQuest59c831.92$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.092339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked Sentinels43c813.95$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3506358.7%37 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Sentinels46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3682,54547.3%1,203 W · 1,342 L-35.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked FlyQuest59c773$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.9320559%121 W · 84 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…fd05backed Sentinels43c751.16$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3233250%16 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Sentinels22c740$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.663333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Sentinels42c714.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015747.8%75 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed FlyQuest62c708.6$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.0732755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed FlyQuest52c701.92$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.9229438.1%112 W · 182 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Sentinels41c699.97$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.997038.6%27 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FlyQuest58c691.48$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.4254929.5%162 W · 387 L-36.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed FlyQuest59c672.41$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.4111854.2%64 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Sentinels45c671.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30047453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked FlyQuest53c670.19$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.2120635.4%73 W · 133 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed FlyQuest79c661.5$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4678043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FlyQuest65c653.24$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.8467931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6170…03bdbacked Sentinels44c644.94$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.91250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae10…09e3backed FlyQuest56c604.07$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.793826.3%10 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed Sentinels42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525131.4%16 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked FlyQuest56c599.98$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.9917438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FlyQuest73c585.48$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sentinels37c573.78$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.521,07423.6%253 W · 821 L-77.7wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf160…c3e7backed Sentinels43c570.1$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.141241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c8e…b339backed Sentinels42c563.45$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.6550%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.