Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c441ed6e63c3cea1b2662ac78a5dcbb80481b6bb52f9e09e39bf611a580c632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 14c | 6,435$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,543.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 36c | 6,181$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,930.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 24c | 3,766$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.25 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 39c | 1,671$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.45 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 51c | 1,308$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…93debacked Yes | 45c | 1,283$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 37c | 1,103$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…ba3dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 42c | 1,044$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 56c | 887.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 885.44$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.93 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 62c | 711.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 41c | 573.24$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…2b85backed No | 63c | 432.8$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 33c | 430.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.83 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 62c | 360.37$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 44c | 280$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.55 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…ed73backed Yes | 49c | 254.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 25c | 235$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 207.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 37c | 206$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…248cbacked Yes | 46c | 181.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 32c | 179.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 55c | 154.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked No | 55c | 147.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 65c | 142$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94c…13aabacked Yes | 35c | 122$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…24e7backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…53b1backed Yes | 43c | 113.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 58c | 109.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 62c | 94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…413ebacked No | 55c | 90.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…3c6cbacked No | 67c | 90.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 57c | 77.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…599bbacked No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…f9d6backed Yes | 38c | 66.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…c3b9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…3297backed Yes | 44c | 48.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…8b21backed No | 64c | 44.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…17e5backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…2010backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ea…c82ebacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…b7a3backed Yes | 45c | 34.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…ff49backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 49c | 30.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd607…e854backed No | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…be9ebacked No | 65c | 28.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…97b0backed No | 65c | 27.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.50 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.