Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03bf5c66a49c7f44661d99dc3784f3cb4484c0aa8459723bd770680512e72f82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 68c | 18,454$12,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,925.34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 31c | 13,000$4,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,063.27 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 14c | 10,242$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 29c | 6,150$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 69c | 5,330$3,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.92 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 12c | 5,024$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.33 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 10c | 4,154$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 21c | 2,412$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.56 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…ba3dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,751$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 30c | 1,724$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.74 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,511$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 1,210$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.1 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 1c | 1,051$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 79c | 789.96$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 24c | 724.56$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…e3cabacked Yes | 28c | 704.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 30c | 655.12$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.99 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…ed73backed Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec2…cb66backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 77c | 311.23$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…c14ebacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e61…6feebacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edf…3ff9backed Yes | 39c | 256.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes | 40c | 251.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 227.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 188$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 28c | 162.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…e94fbacked Yes | 28c | 151.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 24c | 112.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 36c | 112.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 28c | 72.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.50 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.