Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bdc006d11b7dff2eb7ccbba5432c22b702c92aa570840f3555b5e4da86fed02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cab…6817backed No | 79c | 9,500$7,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked Yes | 12c | 8,176$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 17c | 7,427$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…93debacked Yes | 24c | 5,840$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 13c | 4,716$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 80c | 1,578$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.57 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 2c | 1,103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 999.76$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 25c | 989.92$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 24c | 823.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.36 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 79c | 797.66$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…2effbacked Yes | 39c | 796.33$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 22c | 729.98$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 68c | 616.67$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 35c | 596.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed Yes | 16c | 572.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 68c | 419.44$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 71c | 399$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 358.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed No | 76c | 350.5$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…ba3dbacked Yes | 29c | 345.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 291.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…e3cabacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…2b85backed Yes | 14c | 203.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 76c | 185.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 72c | 184.53$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…248cbacked Yes | 19c | 181.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked Yes | 12c | 169.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 70c | 157.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa94c…13aabacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…1430backed Yes | 23c | 85.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…0a26backed Yes | 45c | 83.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 19c | 58.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 60c | 50.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 30c | 49.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…6c84backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ea…3c36backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in August?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $4.50 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.00 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.00-3.25 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in August?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in August?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.