Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63094a6a4aac51a632e56ce3ac84e2ae8a43a6982aa44d72cb5d5e2a7ccf3394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 59c | 1,112$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed No | 36c | 1,106$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 31c | 768.91$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 61c | 631.86$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f6…a293backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 61c | 580.74$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.29 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8321…506dbacked No | 33c | 469.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 67c | 407.03$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked Yes | 58c | 241.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 171.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 68c | 135.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 38c | 134.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 36c | 132.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 117.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 34c | 117.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 115.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 48c | 104.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 59c | 92.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…fc98backed No | 27c | 91.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…2e03backed Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 33c | 86.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…5708backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 60c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…ca9cbacked Yes | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…08c0backed Yes | 68c | 26.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dc…86dfbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–2.00 in April?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in April?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in April?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.