AI · resolved market
Did a valve or plumbing failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x686238d981b158464762fe05778435c0ef440d01a160fc23334f789ac3408699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 1c | 1,090$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 77c | 153.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 17c | 140.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 77c | 120.49$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 101.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 16c | 69.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 38.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed Yes | 77c | 24.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Did a valve or plumbing failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?this page
- Did a ground support equipment failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?No won
- Did a propellant leak cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?No won
- Did a software or control system failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?No won
- Did an engine failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?No won
- Did another cause lead to the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?No won
- Will no cause of the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion be announced by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.