Space · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e483cc79c770ab005b945d6975b447f32654767eb5ef360591888dea3b24729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aa5…ea7ebacked No | 0c | 8,989$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 41c | 8,834$3,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,249.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 61c | 2,705$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…46b6backed No | 1c | 2,454$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed No | 1c | 2,372$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…6760backed No | 1c | 2,233$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…a18bbacked No | 1c | 1,787$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 2c | 1,427$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 749.1$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 25c | 745.37$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +303%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 37c | 721.53$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…0d96backed No | 3c | 605.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 24c | 530.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 524.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…00abbacked No | 58c | 408.86$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed No | 53c | 316.2$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2ee0backed Yes | 52c | 208.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 59c | 171.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed Yes | 40c | 164.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 155$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…f161backed Yes | 26c | 119.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed No | 25c | 109.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8fddbacked No | 71c | 109.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 20c | 92.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +403.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 83.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…0205backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 24c | 51.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +321.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 51c | 50.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 50.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +249%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13df…4f22backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 60c | 39.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 52c | 38.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 37.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa141…6744backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 32.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 67c | 29.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked Yes | 70c | 29.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14e…4286backed Yes | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 49c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?this page
- Will there be 8 or more major space weather events this week?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 major space weather events this week?No won
- Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.