Us Politics · resolved market
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54c2b2d889a1f1d86e2ebe557a6b3da3e35c77c476c96d1a90498632f00db20e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 10c | 10,434$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.34 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 15c | 6,714$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.55 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 11c | 3,000$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 15c | 2,300$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 8c | 1,694$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 1,234$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 8c | 1,219$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 10c | 1,113$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 8c | 787.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 460.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 14c | 423.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 7c | 422$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 16c | 412.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 14c | 393$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 13c | 327.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 9c | 318$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 12c | 237.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 11c | 227.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 7c | 221$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 215.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 213.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 7c | 213.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 193.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 7c | 179$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed No | 13c | 173.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 146$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 8c | 145.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 11c | 133.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 10c | 126.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 13c | 125.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 122.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 119.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 101.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…e2cbbacked No | 10c | 100.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 79c | 98.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 12c | 96.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 13c | 96.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 57c | 20.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?this page
- Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?No won
- Will Rakhi Israni Singh win the CA-14 special election?No won
- Will Wendy Huang win the CA-14 special election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.