Movies · resolved market
Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb71e5bd50e7a91d18f9dec597d3be1681abf89a8d1a8031f2c266ce942ca7806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked Yes | 78c | 8,759$6,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 25c | 2,272$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.02 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 34c | 1,210$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.63 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 25c | 1,002$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.77 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 44c | 944.39$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 26c | 785.94$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.66 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 47c | 482.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 429.9$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.51 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 399.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 311.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 298.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 276.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 7c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 15c | 247.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…2410backed No | 18c | 165$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 11c | 115.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 44.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 33.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 30.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.