Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f572d7ae781f457c2359cecf453c9ca959669761f75f519237926f04566716e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 52c | 6,050$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 43c | 5,431$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,111.72 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…9648backed Yes | 53c | 3,522$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 10c | 1,145$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 23c | 574.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.1 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 64c | 538.61$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 53c | 407.09$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.39 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…efffbacked Yes | 74c | 269.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed No | 27c | 206$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 40c | 187.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 26c | 149$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 54c | 139.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 132.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 125.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 50c | 109.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 83.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 68.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 79c | 45.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 69c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 79c | 36.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 78c | 35.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…988cbacked Yes | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…9dd8backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?this page
- Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.