Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ca12877d43b8d5be0102d83cbfc7a2fd1f56ef9efd1bbd400ce9386c32433d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 35c | 665.59$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.82 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 21c | 488.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.79 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 67c | 399.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 30c | 320$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.44 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 60c | 302.44$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 55c | 196.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 139.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 11c | 96.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 77c | 91.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 55c | 84.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 31c | 81.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 55c | 73.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 70.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…5d02backed Yes | 30c | 69.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 72c | 65.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…16dfbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 62.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…953cbacked Yes | 17c | 62.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 22c | 47.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e39…b974backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 65c | 44.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…607cbacked No | 70c | 33.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 79c | 31.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 31.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 31.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 30.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 23.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 69c | 19.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 75c | 17.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.