Earnings · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16eb038154626c8fc295578673d805e6da12e61df7cf5c63fcf45110ee70f2e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0b3…2199backed No | 0c | 27,089$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No | 3c | 12,379$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 2c | 4,742$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 3c | 3,750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…ffb7backed No | 5c | 3,514$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 2c | 3,333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…dbbbbacked No | 4c | 3,220$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…bdf8backed No | 3c | 3,088$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 2c | 3,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1905…d06cbacked No | 4c | 2,961$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 5c | 2,685$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…436dbacked No | 4c | 2,589$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…819dbacked No | 4c | 2,427$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,418$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0923…bd50backed No | 4c | 2,205$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 3c | 2,100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9446…1c87backed No | 4c | 1,855$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…df43backed No | 4c | 1,773$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 2c | 1,706$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…5ed5backed No | 5c | 1,517$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…8d1fbacked No | 5c | 1,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 4c | 1,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fb…70a2backed No | 6c | 1,477$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…1aebbacked No | 5c | 1,473$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6927…ec4cbacked No | 4c | 1,270$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked No | 4c | 1,260$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…6787backed No | 4c | 1,178$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed No | 8c | 1,051$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 3c | 949.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737e…bee0backed No | 5c | 918.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3812…8b90backed No | 6c | 909.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked No | 3c | 863.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…40b1backed No | 6c | 817.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5752…62a3backed No | 6c | 800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…d58fbacked No | 6c | 794.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 2c | 699.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed No | 4c | 656.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…d793backed No | 5c | 654.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…b236backed No | 5c | 619.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…9c4fbacked No | 3c | 615.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 3c | 599.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…43b0backed No | 5c | 585.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…7d5abacked No | 5c | 584.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…c29dbacked No | 4c | 563.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e3…6128backed No | 7c | 525$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9204…b4f5backed No | 4c | 490$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…180bbacked No | 3c | 468.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…d16dbacked No | 5c | 454.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…37aebacked No | 3c | 439.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b60…01b5backed No | 3c | 437.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…7b9ebacked No | 5c | 401.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…64a2backed No | 5c | 400.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed No | 5c | 397.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…24e5backed No | 5c | 385.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d6…b8bebacked No | 5c | 374.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked No | 6c | 371.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 5c | 368.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed No | 5c | 365.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…6cb9backed No | 3c | 310$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…bf7bbacked No | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…d9aabacked No | 8c | 302.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…837bbacked No | 4c | 291.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…4c1abacked No | 4c | 264.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 4c | 256.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed No | 5c | 244.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…2077backed No | 6c | 244.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e6…a564backed No | 5c | 216.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f2…2230backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…c1c5backed No | 10c | 160.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.