Movies · resolved market
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 36m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5bedf2d288d2aed4e5ed5cef4926c55aca2d2cc6691affb62f787a2ecf3f260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 17c | 6,943$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.07 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 14c | 848.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 5c | 672.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 11c | 612.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 18c | 553.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 20c | 467.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3425…489fbacked Yes | 14c | 361.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 16c | 325.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 10c | 139.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…8b26backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 80c | 23.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 36m?this page
- Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?Yes won
- Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?No won
- Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 33m and 36m?No won
- Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.