CS2 · resolved market
Will FalleN retire by June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc47b3d6d12f44df8206e5ee2c117b5184898e8d40a3c28a61d6d99398fc34948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0451…a0ebbacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…ee8dbacked No | 0c | 10,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed No | 42c | 6,348$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.07 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1afbbacked Yes | 71c | 6,068$4,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…5817backed No | 12c | 3,860$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 4c | 3,431$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed No | 4c | 2,806$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed Yes | 43c | 2,416$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…df10backed No | 12c | 1,604$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,313$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed No | 10c | 1,277$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 75 | 9.3%7 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda32…04a1backed No | 7c | 1,188$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 314 | 44.9%141 W · 173 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 8c | 841$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked No | 10c | 840$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 352 | 42.9%151 W · 201 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked No | 60c | 668.75$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Yes | 48c | 518.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.31 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed Yes | 62c | 510$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 401 | 55.1%221 W · 180 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf0…22cbbacked No | 41c | 489.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed No | 28c | 456.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.49 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…bcf3backed No | 62c | 412.4$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.31 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…ad69backed No | 9c | 380.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed No | 14c | 357.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…283ebacked No | 65c | 340$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…4e13backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.53 | 223 | 58.7%131 W · 92 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 4c | 294.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 57c | 270.4$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Yes | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 297 | 52.2%155 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 9c | 217.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…ae0ebacked Yes | 77c | 206.42$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 6c | 200.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +672.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +68%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…0f4cbacked No | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…79a1backed Yes | 26c | 144.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +277.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 13c | 121.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 78c | 114.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 148 | 20.3%30 W · 118 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…74f7backed Yes | 33c | 106.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -10.5wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Yes | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…5886backed No | 22c | 89.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 55%71 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…ba0bbacked No | 59c | 86.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -7.6wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8c…47c0backed Yes | 78c | 78.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 34c | 72.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed No | 36c | 68.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 226 | 50%113 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…ba33backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…3cd3backed Yes | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 58c | 36.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe71…7b31backed Yes | 75c | 32.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…6eebbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 57c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…c34dbacked Yes | 75c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…38c4backed Yes | 80c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.