Us Politics · resolved market
Another US military action against Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5714318bc973c86ea779fd987c3cf0c96d0e2afe45a72a656790e1b9edbe0a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 12,142$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.57 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,848$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.16 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 1c | 6,536$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 1c | 5,804$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 3,929$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,487$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253a…262cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,486$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +216.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…f1c9backed Yes | 5c | 3,278$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,682$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 4c | 2,553$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…f43dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,518$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 2c | 2,107$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5420backed Yes | 23c | 2,083$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…7defbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,927$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 80c | 1,922$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.3 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,813$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…bfb5backed Yes | 9c | 1,761$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 65c | 1,696$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.11 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…9474backed Yes | 1c | 1,689$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dd05backed Yes | 6c | 1,552$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 7c | 1,443$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,424$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 75c | 1,360$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04df…642ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,335$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…ad60backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…9986backed Yes | 5c | 1,057$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +173.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…a51ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,024$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…701abacked Yes | 4c | 1,020$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288f…9aadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 4c | 955.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…cb66backed Yes | 8c | 954.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 19c | 914.06$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 69c | 872.06$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c2…7a21backed Yes | 3c | 841.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +207.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…5e3cbacked Yes | 6c | 838.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…453abacked Yes | 6c | 823.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked Yes | 7c | 810$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…a852backed Yes | 3c | 772.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2b…bb9bbacked Yes | 5c | 762.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 49c | 752.23$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.59 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…58d1backed Yes | 4c | 750.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes | 1c | 721.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…56e8backed Yes | 10c | 701$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 698$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…7e3ebacked Yes | 2c | 674.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…e22ebacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…dd7fbacked Yes | 4c | 660.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 30c | 599.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…5c02backed Yes | 3c | 551.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…e0f1backed Yes | 4c | 536.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 13c | 527.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 522.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f4…107abacked Yes | 3c | 520$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 512.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…c26abacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +498.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…31c3backed Yes | 4c | 490.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…bea5backed Yes | 7c | 426.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 408.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…acecbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 4c | 387$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb313…6e74backed Yes | 3c | 354.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…c901backed Yes | 6c | 338.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…7368backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583d…e284backed Yes | 4c | 321.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c8…1d4abacked Yes | 4c | 307.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…1f72backed Yes | 13c | 303.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3497…f76dbacked Yes | 6c | 301.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f09…f021backed Yes | 7c | 297.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…5de1backed Yes | 4c | 287$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3643…4b4abacked Yes | 5c | 282.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…d472backed Yes | 13c | 273.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…f1a7backed Yes | 13c | 266.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe434…afd1backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebe…1b72backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Yes | 61c | 247.52$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…e50cbacked Yes | 6c | 245.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58df…fdfabacked Yes | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…0709backed Yes | 10c | 210.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87c…b6abbacked Yes | 7c | 206.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 199.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…0b66backed Yes | 16c | 188.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 13c | 184.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…a3b0backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.