College Football · resolved market
Northwestern vs. Penn State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae3d21a469f4c1c8f0e5d5bfeeeaefd485805542f70920ec0b044bbd7d1b085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwesternof Northwestern, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Northwestern | 16c | 26,093$4,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,809.66 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Northwestern | 38c | 13,173$4,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,209.53 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…672ebacked Northwestern | 8c | 5,302$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,877.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Penn State | 63c | 4,007$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.79 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Penn State | 38c | 3,979$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.02 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Penn State | 55c | 3,564$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.3 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Penn State | 68c | 3,122$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.36 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Penn State | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penn State | 50c | 2,674$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.42 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Penn State | 80c | 1,428$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.97 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Northwestern | 9c | 1,100$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Northwestern | 19c | 1,074$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.68 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Northwestern | 38c | 1,005$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.32 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Northwestern | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Northwestern | 43c | 842.9$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Northwestern | 15c | 824.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.9 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Northwestern | 47c | 564.93$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.93 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Northwestern | 17c | 532.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.71 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…7afcbacked Northwestern | 25c | 474.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Northwestern | 8c | 409.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.05 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Penn State | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Northwestern | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Northwestern | 26c | 357.22$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.83 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Northwestern | 21c | 353.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.09 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Northwestern | 8c | 344.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.72 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Northwestern | 45c | 317$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Penn State | 10c | 305$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Northwestern | 34c | 254.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.22 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…00fbbacked Northwestern | 9c | 242$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.82 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Northwestern | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Northwestern | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Northwestern | 19c | 210$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Northwestern | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Penn State | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Penn State | 55c | 161$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…f2fdbacked Northwestern | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +301.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Penn State | 53c | 134.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…b14abacked Northwestern | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Penn State | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…985fbacked Northwestern | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Northwestern | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Northwestern | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Penn State | 77c | 82.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Northwestern | 17c | 82.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bfe0backed Northwestern | 43c | 81.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Penn State | 61c | 56.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northwestern vs. Penn Statethis page
- Northwestern vs. Penn State: O/U 47.5Under won
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Penn State (-21.5)Northwestern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.