NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals: Will any player score 40+ points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59ac4a303c54d24a4bbcd04a9648bd2b8aad2efd6974bbabe0d81d4a6aeaa2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 56c | 3,278$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.02 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 35c | 1,667$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…127bbacked No | 49c | 1,187$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 54c | 1,007$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.43 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 61c | 704.08$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.33 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 54c | 648.54$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.78 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 600$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 44c | 538.96$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 538.59$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.66 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked No | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 54c | 470.79$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.38 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed No | 44c | 438.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.88 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 59c | 378.9$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked No | 42c | 370.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 71c | 350$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Yes | 55c | 343.24$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 38c | 213.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…0ee5backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 51.4%147 W · 139 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 45c | 192.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…e37cbacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…bbb0backed No | 47c | 156.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 43c | 141.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 44c | 140.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 43c | 131.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 41c | 123.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked No | 44c | 113.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 57c | 110.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…bcdcbacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed No | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 61c | 81.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 55c | 77.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 53c | 72.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 58c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…784abacked Yes | 64c | 65.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 43c | 50.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…f816backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811b…6654backed No | 47c | 40.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…0704backed No | 51c | 39.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 55.6%104 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…4b32backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…3488backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…8890backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…a491backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc334…0e88backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.