Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be7d18b9ffe856db1f0f33590615790494d8459079b343a14d2c3c97113bc9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $280,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 12c | 21,826$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.6 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 18c | 19,126$3,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,506 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 15,499$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 15c | 11,506$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.79 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 5c | 10,281$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.35 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 20c | 9,860$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.41 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 78c | 7,471$5,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 4c | 7,450$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.82 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 2c | 4,968$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,857$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…7935backed Yes | 21c | 3,316$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…653ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,473$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…f43ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,895$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,837$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 24c | 1,750$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.09 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…e21dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,597$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…62b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,406$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed No | 77c | 1,300$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe118…523bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,268$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b3…4575backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…8643backed Yes | 26c | 574.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb7…7998backed Yes | 4c | 570.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 21c | 536.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…6953backed Yes | 2c | 433.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 392.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…a724backed Yes | 5c | 370.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f5…8c0cbacked Yes | 14c | 269.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…c3bbbacked Yes | 15c | 269.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9ff5backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…243dbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…bb60backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…ce19backed No | 77c | 101$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 68 | 10.3%7 W · 61 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…54bbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 20c | 68.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddb…ca89backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…76b7backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fd…829abacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d5…6b05backed No | 80c | 33.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…c1efbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…8e32backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…237ebacked No | 78c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.8 in June?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.9 in June?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2 in June?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.2 in June?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.3 in June?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.5 in June?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.0 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.