Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.3 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce29e08a3447906105a3a90ededc3c1f64729dfcba3bf3b8f720ca25e277e867
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 27c | 23,410$6,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,254.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed No | 6c | 8,000$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.3 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed No | 17c | 7,456$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…8f91backed Yes | 70c | 5,461$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…9fe7backed No | 16c | 3,840$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.98 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 51c | 3,337$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.76 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 25c | 2,915$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 8c | 2,596$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.21 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes | 79c | 2,379$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 79c | 1,834$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.03 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 16c | 1,450$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.51 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,378$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 16c | 1,293$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 71c | 1,027$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.34 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…2556backed No | 8c | 1,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…fbf5backed No | 4c | 820.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 22c | 758.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.86 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 555.09$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 65c | 457.5$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 9c | 420$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 208.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 34c | 156.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Yes | 79c | 150.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9197…08d4backed No | 27c | 146.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 79c | 77.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…4e16backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…c0e9backed Yes | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…5c8abacked Yes | 80c | 33.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.3 in June?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.9 in June?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2 in June?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.2 in June?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.5 in June?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.8 in June?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.0 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.