Champions League · resolved market
Will the Champions League Final be decided in regular time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3e898aaf1d131f072ea659b3ff8a03b1850999bac571b4f789207841770059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3970…dbdebacked Yes | 72c | 54,332$39,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,212.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…7388backed No | 28c | 54,332$15,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,212.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…727ebacked No | 29c | 15,786$4,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,577.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Yes | 71c | 9,500$6,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ca…f4c7backed No | 30c | 3,667$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 71c | 2,343$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 71c | 2,000$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.01 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -27%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed Yes | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 71c | 295.77$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 71c | 270.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 28c | 185.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 76c | 172.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 72c | 157.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfae…8c7dbacked No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f99…a5dfbacked No | 29c | 135.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes | 71c | 125$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…948abacked No | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cc…ded1backed Yes | 72c | 40.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…82d6backed No | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…5823backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…46b0backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…b08abacked Yes | 72c | 27.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Champions League Final be decided in regular time?this page
- Will the Champions League Final be decided in a penalty shoot-out?No won
- Will the Champions League Final be decided in extra time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.