Champions League · resolved market
Will the Champions League Final be decided in a penalty shoot-out?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833d5d5148ac80ef7a7a52b5aa3006d24ea21eee6cae5c98bd618bf6151919bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes | 15c | 5,333$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked Yes | 20c | 5,123$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…fdb0backed Yes | 15c | 2,191$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 12c | 1,117$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 2c | 995.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa504…c842backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 16c | 440$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0a…d109backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…2b6abacked Yes | 16c | 279.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…37e1backed Yes | 15c | 273.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c6…9d47backed Yes | 15c | 233$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4fe9backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 194.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…1633backed Yes | 15c | 132.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5461…96fabacked Yes | 15c | 126.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e0…decbbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…55b9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…eb93backed Yes | 14c | 103.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…1eb6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…02a4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…6dcabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…f19dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…ea42backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…19c4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 35.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Champions League Final be decided in a penalty shoot-out?this page
- Will the Champions League Final be decided in extra time?No won
- Will the Champions League Final be decided in regular time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.