Music · resolved market
Will "Oh, Mary!" win the Tony for Best Play 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe76f1452a91c19a6816f3fa1523f4eeb61f6dd1f4326cd5090eebbcdd09db09e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xece9…75a4backed Yes | 74c | 49,658$36,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,746.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…1b5cbacked No | 26c | 49,658$12,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,746.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 41c | 933$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 60c | 743$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.8 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 61c | 703.87$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.79 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 68c | 514.42$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 51c | 486$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…5a29backed Yes | 56c | 342$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 328.84$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.42 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430c…9aa4backed Yes | 70c | 320.82$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 38c | 236.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 186.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 33c | 164.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 74c | 158.4$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 58c | 151$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 33c | 150.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 25c | 111.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 26c | 103.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 24c | 99.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 42c | 90.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 25c | 88.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 66c | 65.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 30c | 61.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 69c | 54.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…5288backed Yes | 58c | 53.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 47c | 49.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 29c | 40.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 58c | 37.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 62c | 35.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 45c | 33.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Oh, Mary!" win the Tony for Best Play 2025?this page
- Will "Purpose" win the Tony for Best Play 2025?Yes won
- Will "The Hills of California" win the Tony for Best Play 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.