Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d21facfecfe5fcfb1b400e6bf5c2a31f0a2798a57d27eddf62833c7bd050e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 65c | 2,205$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.34 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Down | 49c | 931.72$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7185…a365backed Up | 35c | 790.98$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…e559backed Up | 26c | 561.86$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 28c | 450.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…0f0abacked Up | 7c | 401$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…41a5backed Down | 74c | 385.92$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 18c | 243.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…9ce3backed Up | 49c | 214.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…f650backed Up | 49c | 212.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ef…1ac4backed Up | 49c | 208.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…4545backed Up | 49c | 206.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff2…38edbacked Up | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…3a28backed Up | 49c | 183.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Up | 33c | 142.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f5…fb4abacked Down | 69c | 142.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed Down | 78c | 116.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bd…5acbbacked Up | 51c | 114$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Up | 12c | 108.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Up | 32c | 105.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Up | 23c | 103.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 43c | 100.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed Up | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…3757backed Up | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Up | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Up | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Up | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…ba81backed Up | 16c | 94.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Up | 18c | 83.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Up | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Up | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Down | 76c | 57.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Down | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Up | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…ef79backed Up | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…651ebacked Up | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…fb06backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…0c45backed Up | 49c | 47.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c0…f0c5backed Up | 28c | 47.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…b7e9backed Up | 26c | 46.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 28c | 41.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…0d78backed Up | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…b14fbacked Up | 52c | 27.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 49c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.