Boxing · resolved market
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30d37a35600da6a89ae631678a397d68d4cf3071f6d0f0b32b0fb396de325a46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked No | 15c | 14,462$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 19c | 5,227$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked No | 16c | 2,905$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 80c | 1,600$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…c873backed No | 17c | 1,515$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 80c | 1,152$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 13c | 1,109$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 16c | 838.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 20c | 814.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 4c | 801.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b87…f154backed No | 20c | 655.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 17c | 647.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 16c | 625$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked No | 13c | 486.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 17c | 413.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 14c | 333$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 18c | 331.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 14c | 264$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 20c | 263.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed No | 17c | 205.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…4db0backed No | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…38c2backed No | 17c | 139$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…ea97backed No | 17c | 132.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…0de1backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946c…cefbbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…2138backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…6cdcbacked Yes | 79c | 101.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…ae41backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 14c | 99.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 16c | 99.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 78c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…0f75backed Yes | 80c | 83.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 19c | 82.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed No | 17c | 67.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…bf74backed No | 22c | 65.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Yes | 77c | 57.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed Yes | 80c | 53.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…b162backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…4dacbacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.?this page
- Will Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. have no official winner?No won
- Will Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. win his boxing match against?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.