Movies · resolved market
Will 'Sinners' gross between $49m and $54m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaabc64c626cfbe58f2c408f80ec3fd2fef3a254e3b8e3910d56fbe74d7e9e0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.79 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 2c | 2,934$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 2,017$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.47 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,683$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 28c | 1,642$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,587$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 67c | 1,575$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.55 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 11c | 1,062$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 5c | 1,041$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 2c | 761.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 4c | 649.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 618.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 9c | 568.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 9c | 289.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…3132backed Yes | 7c | 245.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 28c | 182.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 164$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ccdabacked Yes | 14c | 141.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 12c | 127.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 66c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 59c | 64.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 67c | 53.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 60c | 47.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…b7b7backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Sinners' gross between $49m and $54m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Sinners' gross between $44m and $49m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Sinners' gross less than $44m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Sinners' gross more than $54m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.