Movies · resolved market
Will 'Sinners' gross less than $44m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b1567c170dc50308d74e0822cdb90eaa02da49fc48d3fe58bbd9c126f0c836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21b2…c416backed Yes | 46c | 31,422$14,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,453.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7678backed No | 54c | 31,402$16,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,444.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 24,141$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.62 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 8,010$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.48 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 70c | 6,977$4,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,891.35 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 31c | 5,270$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.4 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 1c | 3,319$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 48c | 2,973$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.73 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 15c | 2,407$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 70c | 2,385$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 64c | 1,550$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.95 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed No | 56c | 1,290$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.54 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed No | 56c | 1,226$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.84 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 59c | 1,225$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.13 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…481ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,190$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…3301backed Yes | 43c | 1,015$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 79c | 961.23$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.3 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 70c | 857.39$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.39 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed No | 57c | 735$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…d3c4backed Yes | 43c | 735$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 3c | 600.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 32c | 595$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…9cb4backed No | 59c | 480$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 14c | 406.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…26fabacked No | 59c | 405$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 393.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 60c | 368.67$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.67 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 41c | 367.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.14 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 37c | 361.93$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…95b1backed No | 57c | 360$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 4c | 310.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…896bbacked No | 59c | 310$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 29c | 246.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 32c | 242$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 12c | 239.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 62c | 238.61$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2100…8bb9backed Yes | 43c | 235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…8441backed No | 57c | 225$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…a73abacked No | 57c | 220$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…99f5backed No | 57c | 190$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…96cdbacked No | 57c | 185$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 19c | 167.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…4495backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…953abacked Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 159.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 145.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b8…4d0bbacked No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…5eddbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5765…7a40backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 76c | 98.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…b88ebacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…f2d0backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked No | 28c | 72.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 30c | 66.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…b3afbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ccdabacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 44c | 33.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3547…7064backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…527ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5d…ccb7backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 79c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Sinners' gross less than $44m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Sinners' gross between $44m and $49m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Sinners' gross between $49m and $54m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Sinners' gross more than $54m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.