Movies · resolved market
Will 'King of Kings' make between $15-18m on its domestic opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf40bc6fc3ea3b4b470ed529433d8aea3a3a82cbe99f0fb1edf3d5c47807ef4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ba…b539backed Yes | 9c | 22,200$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 4c | 7,601$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.28 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 3c | 6,188$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.45 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 9c | 3,760$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 2c | 3,382$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 1c | 2,900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,791$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.76 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 56c | 1,068$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,043$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 9c | 614.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 30c | 338.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 20c | 250.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 178.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 15c | 155.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 25c | 133.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 22c | 68.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'King of Kings' make between $15-18m on its domestic opening weekend?this page
- Will 'King of Kings' make between $18-21m on its domestic opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'King of Kings' make between $21-24m on its domestic opening weekend?No won
- Will 'King of Kings' make less than $15m on its domestic opening weekend?No won
- Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.