Movies · resolved market
Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0044de84a4d8512f545e86dd63a106ad994981ca5d42fd381f2c57e803f0c84b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 1c | 4,056$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,229$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.94 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 58c | 1,644$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.05 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,156$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.98 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 64c | 1,028$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.55 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…5a8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,024$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 55c | 799$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.55 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 37c | 775.68$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.26 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 50c | 705.79$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.01 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 20c | 614.38$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 59c | 170.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 66c | 168$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 78c | 128.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 115.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 104.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 59.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…96f6backed Yes | 75c | 49.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 38c | 46.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 30c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c691backed Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weekend?this page
- Will 'King of Kings' make between $15-18m on its domestic opening weekend?No won
- Will 'King of Kings' make between $18-21m on its domestic opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'King of Kings' make between $21-24m on its domestic opening weekend?No won
- Will 'King of Kings' make less than $15m on its domestic opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.