Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x468797aa45311333245fb730cf170b058d7e56f4c244e411c00e5ab92d931f4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 13c | 17,112$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.18 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 14c | 10,365$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.19 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed No | 1c | 10,100$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 5c | 7,124$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.33 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 9c | 6,060$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.08 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 5c | 2,786$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No | 8c | 2,076$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 6c | 2,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked No | 18c | 1,820$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.65 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 5c | 1,721$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 4c | 1,582$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 10c | 1,354$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 11c | 824$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 21c | 583$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…e233backed No | 6c | 550$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 457.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…75ddbacked No | 18c | 415$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…050fbacked No | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 7c | 295.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 15c | 251.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 6c | 250.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…ee26backed No | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 17c | 121.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…0222backed Yes | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 16c | 77.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5c…151ebacked No | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…59bbbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.