World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee876240e85e207d3c5fb27ab5ebfe3efbfefa3e447000043916c9af8d935e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 5,318$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.53 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 3,796$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.88 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,357$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 44c | 2,123$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.51 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 41c | 2,021$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 42c | 1,870$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.67 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…fa36backed Yes | 45c | 1,105$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,061$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 988.79$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.5 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 43c | 656.4$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…3142backed Yes | 33c | 599.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 38c | 557.91$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc469…8bd4backed Yes | 9c | 537.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 41c | 488.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 41c | 473.6$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 42c | 444$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…1dabbacked Yes | 42c | 437.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 39c | 435.53$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 34c | 424.81$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…b107backed No | 59c | 308.88$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…f343backed Yes | 42c | 301.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…6378backed Yes | 40c | 280.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8423…59d5backed Yes | 33c | 267.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 24c | 258.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 39c | 250.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 58c | 249.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa192…79d6backed Yes | 48c | 248.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 40c | 219.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 55c | 195.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 50c | 184.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 70c | 171.61$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 42c | 157.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d2…d91fbacked Yes | 38c | 142.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 134.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…e62bbacked Yes | 36c | 131.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…4ea3backed No | 60c | 128.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb9…ba82backed Yes | 46c | 113.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 45c | 110.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6baa…5ec8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8b…680bbacked Yes | 43c | 99.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…6f29backed Yes | 41c | 96.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…d014backed Yes | 45c | 95.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…aad5backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…dca0backed Yes | 12c | 90.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 89.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a5dabacked Yes | 36c | 86.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…9076backed Yes | 37c | 80.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…43ffbacked Yes | 37c | 80.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321b…8a44backed Yes | 41c | 74.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…c2ebbacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 42c | 71.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…a00bbacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0421…8f00backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…19ecbacked Yes | 41c | 69.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…e825backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…4adbbacked No | 60c | 67.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 57c | 64.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…59abbacked Yes | 41c | 62.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…ff1ebacked Yes | 41c | 62.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…68fcbacked Yes | 35c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…c777backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…8597backed No | 57c | 57.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b86…ec1ebacked No | 61c | 54.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfb…e7dabacked No | 61c | 53.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…5782backed Yes | 41c | 52.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdff…8290backed Yes | 45c | 51.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…6141backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…f6d2backed Yes | 35c | 51.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…ed4ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…f913backed Yes | 42c | 47.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee6…380fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…64dfbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5629…64bebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3174backed No | 60c | 44.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…f937backed No | 61c | 40.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7284backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 41c | 37.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3638…48ddbacked Yes | 41c | 37.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…2f36backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bed…e3f3backed No | 61c | 35.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…1214backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 34c | 31.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84de…f6d9backed Yes | 42c | 31.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7f…a355backed Yes | 43c | 31.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…5122backed No | 61c | 31.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…e435backed Yes | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…205ebacked No | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…af78backed No | 59c | 27.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22de…10dabacked No | 59c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7648…13e2backed No | 61c | 25.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the CDU/CSU win between 32% and 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win more than 34% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.