Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afd212e0ee7326ac82ba868db4a4ab6b5498548765905f0b0b2014da2c323d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 3c | 12,360$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.59 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 3c | 10,416$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 3c | 10,200$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Yes | 5c | 9,993$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.15 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…c06fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,810$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…f486backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…79f7backed Yes | 2c | 3,976$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,837$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 6c | 2,244$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 2c | 1,978$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,965$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,767$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,505$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 6c | 1,102$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,034$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 2c | 999.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 2c | 999.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…fd37backed Yes | 3c | 999$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Yes | 2c | 946.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 892.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…483abacked Yes | 3c | 875.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 6c | 812.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 4c | 787.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Yes | 2c | 765.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 3c | 707.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Yes | 3c | 705.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…52b3backed Yes | 6c | 701.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 2c | 523.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 5c | 435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 2c | 416.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…aeecbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc479…e938backed Yes | 4c | 326.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 7c | 228.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 5c | 201.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 7c | 160.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-14?this page
- Will Germany win on 2025-11-14?Yes won
- Will Luxembourg vs. Germany end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.